Can evolutionary biologists learn from creationists? Irreducible complexity.

[Roy]

Wrong, many detailed predictions have been made by scientists concerning the gaps between species, as with whales, predicting their anatomy and the time they should occur. Many predictions have been very accurate.

I don't think this was phank's point.

yes, we can predict with reasonable accuracy what fossils might be found, and in which rocks. Finding Tiktaalik is a good example.

But what we can't do anywhere nearly as accurately is predict what modern animals will evolve into in the future. For example: what direction will the evolution of feral foxes in Australia take? Will the become larger, like wolves? Or smaller with big ears like fennecs? Will they become more nocturnal, to reduce competition with dingoes maybe, or less? For example: which animals will evolve to fill the niches left by the extinction of seacows and river dolphins? Will sea-otters become larger and estuarine? Will crab-eating raccoons become gradually more aquatic and vegetarian? Or will geladas get there first?

These predictions are much harder.

Roy

[phank]

Groan, groan, groan!!?!?! OK, but I do not believe this works. Your confusing the issues.

The issue I was trying to address was, WHY is evolution so widely rejected in the US? Do you think people are simply parroting the authorities they find congenial? If so, why do those authorities reject evolution? Do you think it's because religious authorities all sincerely believe in POOF? If so, why aren't they all out searching for a Tree of Knowledge?

So I suggested part of the reason is ego. People do not wish to see themselves as "accidental" (a term deliberately chosen for its teleological implications). We humans must be here for a REASON, even if we have to make up an imaginary entity to have such a reason. A purpose-haver, to give life and everything purpose. And therefore, an "accident" is something that did not go according to plan. An accident is a mistake.

But evolution properly understood implies that there is no "final cause", no purpose or direction. Roy understood - with tens of thousands of dimensions to work with, and with the selection of dimensions from one generation to the next being largly chance, evolution's direction can't be predicted. Run the movie over from the start, and not one single organism will recur (though the mechanical requirements of life will surely lead to similar modes of locomotion, etc.) No matter how many times you re-run it, no exact duplication will ever take place.